Closing Read Apr 23, 2010

Primary Trend=Transitioning

Number of days=1

PM Update Apr 23:  The Secondary gained 43 ticks to +68.

AM Update Apr 23:  The Secondary is losing 43 ticks to -18 and has flipped back down again.  To turn down, negative signal weight of -80 is needed.

PM Update Apr 22:  The Secondary flipped up after signal weight reversed.  It now stands at +19.

AM Update Apr 22:  The Secondary is gaining 107 ticks to -115 as the down cycle continues.  To flip up, positive signal weight of 480 is required.

PM Update Apr 21:  The Secondary closed down 6 ticks to -7.  The Secondary will be able to turn flip up tomorrow.

AM Update Apr 21:  The Secondary is flat at the open.  To flip up, positive signal weight of +580 is needed.

PM Update Apr 20:  The Secondary closed down 94 ticks to -15.  The Secondary will be able to turn flip up tomorrow.

AM Update Apr 20:  The Secondary is losing 79 ticks to -29.  To turn up, signal weight of +2220 is needed.

PM Update Apr 19:  The Secondary closed down 27 ticks to -109.  There are two downside targets identified above.

AM Update Apr 19:  The Secondary identified a down cycle on Friday, April 16 as the Slope closed at -83.  Today, the Secondary is gaining 43 ticks to -129.  To turn back up, positive weight of +1800 is needed.

Apr 23:  Closing Read

Signal weight rose above +1000 only during the final hour closing at +1279, the Change +31.  Price is trying to break out above the recent highs on increasingly narrow signal weight.  As the value of SPY has risen above 120, the trading model will need to adjust its price target accordingly to 1.2 per signal.  As the range of SPY has narrowed while its price has risen, trading has become more difficult as one would expect in a lower volatility period.  

Trading other issues with higher betas, that are 1:1 correlated to SPY, should be considered.  X has decoupled recently due to the upcoming earnings release.  But there are plenty of other issues to chose from that are lower priced than SPY that will work fine.  Google finance has a pretty good stock screener that you can set up to look for issues that have already released earnings, or won't for another couple of months, have beta's of 2 and are 1:1 correlated with the S&P or Nasdaq markets.  Remember, if you're using a Nasdaq issue, after logging into the servers, hit F5 not F4 to load the Nasdaq signal weight data, then hit F3 and type in your Nasdaq symbol if your issues is more correlated to QQQ than the S&P.  If you have questions on this, please let me know.

Apr 23:  2pm

An enter long signal was confirmed at 1pm at SPY 121.26.  As the Secondary is not trending, the signal will be ignored.  At this posting, signal weight is +709, the Change already nearing single digits at +14.

Apr 23:  12pm

Flat flat flat...I'm off to the gym.

Apr 23:  10:30am

Signal weight weakly positive at +267 the Change +5.  Price has retested the highs from Apr15th.  Not much to do here with signal weight weak and the Primary stuck near zero.  SPY and X Accumulators in sell indications at this post.  EK continues to move higher.

Apr 23:  10am

The slope change up/exit short signal has confirmed at 120.94 at the close of the 9:30am bar.  No email went out.

Apr 23:  9:45

Oh, I forgot to mention that the short signal is still active.  A signal cannot confirm at the close, so yesterday's last bar early exit short is still active and won't confirm unless the Primary turns up.  If you look at your trade window on your program you will see it says 'exit short' at 16:00.  This is incorrect because a signal cannot confirm at the close.  The trade is still on for the model.

Apr 23:  Opening Read

Signal weight has opened weakly negative but enough to turn the Secondary back down.  The early slope change up signal that issued yesterday during the last bar will confirm at 10am if signal weight is less than -380.

The recent huge range in signal weight is unusual.  It is not typical to see -1800 signal weight turn into +1800 signal weight and get no follow-through in either direction.  It just means our trading must be more target oriented and take the profits identified when they're there.

Apr 22:  Closing Read

Interesting day.  The Primary will turn up in the morning if signal weight exceeds +420.  With the Secondary now up, we could get a new up cycle tomorrow.

Apr 22:  3:30

The early exit short has issued but it cannot confirm until tomorrow.

Apr 22:  3:25pm

Signal weight now +703, TTXSlope= this bar and the signal is out of confirmation of the Secondary as it has flipped up.

Apr 22:  2:00pm

The enter short signal confirmed at 11am at 119.78 and the trading model is short at that level with a gtc exit at 118.78.  Signal weight has reversed from this morning's very strongly negative levels, now sitting at +188, the Change +25.  Unless signal weight turns more strongly positive, I doubt whether the Primary will change slope again today.

Apr 22:  10:15

The slope change down has confirmed, an early enter short has issued that will confirm at 10:30 if signal weight exceeds -1235, otherwise at the next bar.  Any move to close the gap within 1 hour of the enter short confirmation will be an opportunity to short again if signal weight remains more negative than -1000.  I have meetings that will keep me away from posting until noonish.

Apr 22:  9:45am

If signal weight remains greater than -1540 near the conclusion of the current bar, we should expect a dual signal at 10am, slope change down confirmation, early enter short signal.

Apr 22:  Opening Read   Early Slope Change Down Signal Issued

Signal weight has opened very strongly negative at -1745, the Change -111.  The signal wiill confirm at 10am if signal weight is greater than -1540, otherwise the next bar.  A short signal is expected today which will be taken by the 2010 trading model as the Secondary is in a confirmed down cycle.

Apr 21:  Closing Read

Signal weight remained weakly positive most of the day and not enough to ever trigger the middle long signal confirmation.  With the Change now flat, strongly positive signal weight will extend the current unconfirmed up cycle, otherwise with strong negative signal weight we'll get a slope change down and a short signal tomorrow.

Apr 21:  10am

The early enter long has not confirmed as signal weight was +568 at the time of the bar change.  The signal is still active and will confirm at any subsequent bar if signal weight exceeds +580.  I've got an appointment on the first tee so I'll update after the close.  Tomorrow I also have meetings beginning early in the morning so I won't be posting much on Thursday.

If we get a slope change down on the Primary today, a new short signal can be issued and the 2010 model will take the signal because the Secondary is in a trend, it's colored red.  The value of the Slope of the Secondary does not need to exceed +-75 at the time of any signal to confirm a 2010 model trading signal if the Secondary is already trending.

Apr 21:  9:40  Early Enter Long Signal issued

The middle long early enter signal has issued which will confirm at 11am, or any subsequent bar, if signal weight exceeds +580.

Apr 21:  Opening Read

Signal weight has opened weakly positive at +361, the Change -65, TTXSlope=9 bars at this level of signal weight.  The Secondary will flip up and generate a middle long signal if signal weight is greater than +580.  The model will of course ignore this signal.

Apr 20:  Closing Read

Signal weight held at +1800 most of the day, closing at +1915, about the highest signal weight we've seen for quite some time.  With the Change at +17, any moderation in signal weight will turn the Change strongly negative and begin pulling the Slope lower.  Hence, any move higher in price from here will have to be accompanied by strongly positive signal weight.  

If we see positive signal weight tomorrow, the Secondary will be able to flip up and generate a middle long signal which will be ignored by the model.  

Apr 20:  2pm

Signal weight's been holding very strongly positive all day, still +1800, price stuck.  Still have that gap from this morning.

Apr 20:  12:10pm

Signal weight has again expanded to more strongly positive numbers at +1806, the Change +75.  I would assume the big question out there among users is whether this is a bear market rally and/or will the Secondary turn back up?  With the Primary turning back up at -7000, we should expect it to complete a cycle and it could certainly reach +7000 again.  But with the Secondary down, we should approach this as a bear market rally because our disciplines tell us to do exactly this until and if the Secondary does turn up and identifies a new cycle.  We know that bear market rallies typically appear really strong initially, then fail.

What we're seeing here is the Slope value is already really high and we can expect it to get much higher with the Change so strong.  This means that the Primary will take much longer than normal to turn back down unless signal weight totally reverses and goes to -1800.  So, this cycle could last longer than the previous several up cycles on the Primary.

Apr 20:  10:30  Slope Change Up Confirmed

The slope change has confirmed, signal weight +1106, the Change +85.  The Primary is neutral as the slope of the Secondary is down.  

Apr 20:  10am  Early Slope Change Up/Early Exit Short signal issued

The early slope change signal has issued which will confirm at 10:30 if signal weight exceeds +500.  Signal weight is holding very strongly positive.  No long signal will obviously be issued.

Apr 20:  Opening Read

Signal weight has opened very strongly positive at +1617, the Change +145 and TTXSlope=.4, so the beginning of the next bar. 

Apr 19:  Closing Read

Signal weight became less negative during the final hour of the day, closing at -424, the Change +52.  If signal weight opens positive tomorrow, we'll get a slope change back up within about 3 bars.  It will probably take +2000 signal weight tomorrow to turn the Secondary back up, so no long signal will be expected if we get a slope change.

Apr 19:  3pm

Signal weight has become much less negative at -689, the Change now +43 and TTXSlope=6.3 bars at this level of signal weight.  The Primary's now -6750.  

Apr19:  12pm

Signal weight has turned more strongly negative at -1657, the Change now -4 as the down cycle continues.  We should expect to see the value of the Primary continue lower to -6500+- before seeing a slope change back up.

April 19:  11am

Signal weight is moderately negative at -734, the Change +41.  The Secondary is now in a down cycle as it was at the time of the signal on Friday.  Signal weight will need to turn more strongly negative for the current down cycle on the Primary to continue.

Apr 19th

I'm back from vacation.  I'll post later in the day. It will take a day to get the Accumulators back up.

Apr 9:  Closing Read

Well, my internet went down at around 12:40pm, then came back up. This caused my Delineator Software to issue a whole group of bad signals and emails following the correct ones at 12:30pm.  The software issued a slope change up signal at 11:30 followed by an enter long which confirmed at 12:30 at SPY 119.31.  Signal weight was strong enough at the time to flip the Secondary back up and generate the signal.

As I have mentioned previously, I will be gone all next week.  See you all Monday, April 19th.  Good Trading!

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