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Apr
9: Closing Read
Well,
my internet went down at around 12:40pm, then came back up. This
caused my Delineator Software to issue a whole group of bad signals
and emails following the correct ones at 12:30pm. The software
issued a slope change up signal at 11:30 followed by an enter long
which confimed at 12:30 at SPY 119.31. Signal weight was strong
enough at the time to flip the Secondary back up and generate the
signal.
As
I have mentioned previously, I will be gone all next week. See
you all Monday, April 19th. Good Trading!
Apr
9: 10am
Signal
weight has expanded a bit to +559, the Change +45 and TTXSlope=1.3
bars. This will be my last posting until after the close today.
I have a lot to do in preparation for my trip next week. Remember,
there will be no Delineator Journal postings all next week as I
will be in a place where there's no Internet!! (Rule #1: do
not trade when you're on vacation.)
Apr
9: Opening Read
Signal
weight has opened weakly positive at +200, the Change +48 and
TTXSlope=3.5 bars at the current level of signal weight. Assuming
we get a slope change up today, signal weight will need to expand
to +740 or more to generate a long signal. The 2010 trading
model will not be taking any signal again as the Secondary is still
in a transitioning mode.
Apr
8: Closing Read
Signal
weight remained weakly positive from the last posting at 2:30pm,
price moving back to the old high. With the Slope of the Primary
now -143 and the Change +31 with signal weight of only +70, we can
see that strongly positive signal weight tomorrow will turn
the Primary up quickly. It would also flip back up the Secondary
and we'd get another long signal. While the 2010 model won't
take the signal on SPY, there's a lot of opportunity in individual
issues that will certainly benefit from a slope change up on
the Primary.
Apr
8: 2:30
Signal
weight has completely reversed from this morning's extreme negative
levels to +23 at this post. The Primary has also crossed zero
and is now -276, down from +8000 a few days ago. One cannot
ignore the trend of signal weight over the past week to go positive
from negative levels. TTXSlope=5.7 bars.
Apr
8: 12:10
Signal
weight now only -592, the Change +25 and TTXSlope=16 bars. The
trend for signal weight not being able to remain very strongly negative
for very long continues. We can expect a slope change up most
likely tomorrow.
Apr
8: 11am
Signal
weight -1005, the Change +4 so we should get something of a bounce
here. 118.36 is the next obvious resistance level. The
Timing Accumulators have been generally positive all day thus far.
Apr
8: 10:40
Signal
weight has moderated somewhat to -1102, the Change now only -3.
I doubt very seriously if we'll get a slope change up today
unless signal weight totally reverses and rises to +1000. Not
much to do here but watch and see how far this down cycle takes
the Primary. And besides, watching the Masters on the internet
is a lot more interesting.
Apr
8: Opening Read
Signal
weight has opened very strongly negative at -1650, the Change -43
and the down cycle continues. With signal weight this strongly
negative, the Secondary has also increased its slope beyond -75,
but it will need to close there to identify a new down cycle on
the Secondary. With the value of the Primary at +3341, we
should assume it will cross zero and head into negative territory.
Apr
7: Closing Read
The
Primary continued lower today but signal weight never got past -1100
and spent most of the day only moderately negative. With the
Change number at -11, we'll need more strongly negative signal weight
to continue this cycle.
Apr
7: 10am
Signal
weight moderated above -640 so the signal did not confirm. This
signal will confirm upon any subsequent bar closing with signal
weight greater than -640. The first tee beckons...will update
after the close.
Apr
7: Opening Read Early Enter Short Signal
Issued
Signal
weight has opened negative at -1007, flipping the Secondary back
down and generating an early enter short signal. This signal
will be ignored for the 2010 trading model. Since the slope
of the Primary is already down, the signal will confirm at the end
of any bar if signal weight is greater than -640 which is needed
to turn the Secondary down.
Apr
6: Closing Read
Signal
weight couldn't remain negative for more than an hour today, but
it didn't go much positive either. With the change at essentially
zero, negative signal weight will affect the Primary more than positive
signal weight will given the level of the Slope. Still trendless
with a positive bias for signal weight. But all things being
equal, I'd expect to see the down cycle on the Primary continue
tomorrow.
Apr
6: 2:04pm
Signal
weight has been weakly positive for the last couple of hours. The
Change now in single digits. If signal weight turns strongly
positive, it will take awhile for the Primary to be able to turn
back up. If signal weight closes +800 or more, the Secondary
will close >+75.
Apr
6: 11:30 Exit Long/Slope Change Down Signal Confirmed
Apr
6: 11am Early Exit Long/Early Slope Change Down signal
issued
The
early slope change signal has issued, and it will confirm at the
11:30 if signal weight is less than +540.
Apr
6: 10am
Signal
weight has moderated to -613, an early exit long/early slope change
down signal is expected at the conclusion of the current bar. The
Secondary has flipped back up. If a short signal is generated
today, it will be ignored by the 2010 trading model.
Apr
6: Opening Read
Signal
weight has opened at -1214, the Change -141 and TTXSlope=next bar
at the current level of signal weight. The Secondary has also
flipped back down taking the current signal out of confirmation.
Apr
5: Closing Read
2
points: 1) the negative divergence on the Secondary has ended,
that curve now showing a normal pattern or higher highs, but not
yet higher (corrected) lows. That will be the key if the Secondary has
normalized. One must take it as an overall positive that we
got a time delay--a 10 day sideways narrow range action--rather
than a down cycle move to the previous high from January as a consequence
of the divergence.
2)
The slope of the Primary is fully extended up. +2000 signal
weight will only move it up 10 ticks or so which won't add much
to the value of the Slope. In the past, I have seen the Primary
continue to move in a direction for a couple of days on strong signal
weight even through the Slope was declining.
So
we must view the current levels as unsustainable for this cycle
on the Primary. Any moderation in signal weight will turn
the Change strongly negative and a slope change would ensue very
quickly with -1000 or more signal weight tomorrow.
As
far as the 2010 trading model is concerned, during the past 10 days
it's avoided all the signals; all but one failing to achieve their
targets. And the Secondary can easily flip back down tomorrow
so it's still the same pattern today as all of the prior two weeks'.
Nothing has really changed from that point of view.
Apr
5: 2:45pm
Signal
weight still holding very strongly positive at +1415, the Change
now -9. Don't try to fight signal weight even with a negative
Change. Until the Primary becomes overextended at greater
than +10,000, continue to expect higher prices.
From
last week's comments regarding what it would take to keep prices
rising, we're seeing the bull case unfold thus far.
Apr
5: 12:20pm
Signal
weight still holding +1550, the Change about to go negative at +1.
The Timing SPY has been in a decline since 10:30 but no decline
in price. Surprise still to the upside. I'm off to the
gym, back around 2:30pm. Oh, I've added EK to the Accumulators
on a separate page from the Advanced section.
Apr
5: 11:30am
Signal
weight continues extremely strongly positive at +1615, the Change
+7.5. As long as signal weight remains this strong, don't
expect to see a big reversal. For that, signal weight would
need to drop below +1000 and even then I'd expect to see a recovery.
So is this the spike that will suck everyone in and leave
them at the highs? I don't think so but we'll need to watch
signal weight to be sure over the next several days. If the
Primary were +11,000 right now, I'd say yes. But the Primary
is only +6366 and not rising that quickly. Until it becomes
overextended continue to expect price to resolve in the direction
of the Primary...and keep an eye on the Change when it gets near
zero.
So,
I certainly wouldn't be building long positions at this time, nor
would I attempt to go short.
Apr
5: 11:10am
Somewhat
of a buying panic setting in with signal weight +1638, the Change
+11 and the Primary now at +6062.
Apr
5: 10:06
I
pushed the wrong button, no new signal should have gone out.
Apr
5: 10am
Signal
weight continues to hold very strongly positive numbers. The
value of the Primary at +5200 is clearly not yet overextended
and with the Change in single digits, the Primary won't be rising
very quickly from here. The negative divergence that is still
showing on the Secondary is diminishing and may be starting to show
a normal pattern.
Apr
5: 9:50am
Signal
weight has expanded to +1400, the Change +9. (btw, dozens
and dozens of earthquakes in SoCal today. Haven't felt any
of them here in Santa Barbara.)
Apr
5: Opening Read
Signal
weight has opened modestly positive at +573, the Change -33 and
TTXSlope=7 bars at this level of signal weight. Signal weight
will need to turn strongly positive to keep the current up cycle
on the Primary intact.
Apr
1: Closing Read
Signal
weight recovered during the final hour, closing at +1464, the Change
+15. The value of the Primary is now back to +5000 and it
will take very strongly positive signal weight on Monday to keep
this cycle intact. The Secondary also flipped back up in the
final minutes of the trading day.
So,
what has the past 10 trading days taught us? That when the
Secondary isn't in a trending mode, the daily trading range of SPY
will narrow, signals will fail, and we'll spend a lot more time
waiting than trading. Markets are either trending or they're
not. Why make life difficult when we have tools that tell
us when to and when not to trade the indexes based upon the new
2010 trading model. It has successfully avoided an entire
group of signal that have failed to achieve their targets due to
the narrow range caused by the state of the Secondary.
For
those of us trading individual issues, such as X, trading only in
the direction of the Primary in conjunction with the Timing Accumulator
will work regardless of whether the Secondary is trending or not.
Identifying targets and sticking to them are clearly
the keys to success. It all depends on how much time and effort
you're willing to put into it and your skill as a trader.
So,
coming into the new week we're still in this non-trending mode.
Until it breaks, we must be patient and stick to our disciplines.
As soon as the Secondary begins to trend, we can start taking the signals generated by the Delineator for the indexes.
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