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Mar
26: Closing Read
Not
much more for me to add that I haven't already written this week.
At some point soon, some exogenous event is going to push
the trend of signal weight in a direction, finally. You all
know which way I think it will be. Have a great weekend.
Mar
26: 3:30pm Exit Long/Slope Change Down Signal Issued
The
signal has confirmed. The new model did not take the signal;
that's 3 that failed that were avoided.
Mar
26: 3pm Early Exit/Slope Change Down Signal Issued
The
signal has issued and it will confirm at 3:30 if signal weight is
less than +160. Otherwise no signal can confirm until
Monday. With the Change already -24, I wouldn't have
a problem front running the signal before the close if signal weight
becomes more negative or we retest the highs.
Mar
26: 2:30pm
Signal
weight flat, TTXSlope=1. Signal weight of -380 this bar will
generate an early exit long/early slope change down signal.
Mar
26: 1:19pm
That
didn't take long. So we can expect a slope change down today
and possibly a short signal if signal weight turns strongly negative.
If it does go to -1000 for example, the value of the Slope
on the Secondary will be near -100 and low enough for me to take
the short signal, as will the trading model.
1:24pm
If the highs are going to be taken out and a new up cycle
on the Secondary identified, signal weight better go to +1800 in
a hurry. Otherwise...
Mar
26: 1pm
Again
today a reversal in signal weight down. If signal weight closes
at -400 or more, the Secondary will be in a new down cycle. As
of this posting, SPY is sitting on top of numerous chevrons up,
so it wouldn't surprise me to see these levels hold for awhile.
But as soon as signal weight turns more negative, these levels
will fail and we should see an acceleration to the downside. TTXSlope=3
bars at the current level of signal weight.
Mar
26: 12:21
Signal
weight now +547, the Change -16. The signal's been out of
confirmation for several bars in a row now.
Mar
26: 11am
Signal
weight now back under +1000 and the signal again out of confirmation.
The Change again approaching single digits.
Mar
26: 10am
Signal
weight fell below +1100 rather quickly during the first bar, taking
the signal out of confirmation. It's back above +1100
again at this posting.
Mar
26: Opening Read
Signal
weight has opened strongly positive at +1122, the Change +25. The
up cycle on the Primary continues. The signal will come out
of confirmation if signal weight falls below +1100.
Mar
25: Closing Read
As
a point of interest: we have seen over the past several
days, that even with strong signal weight, cycles on the Primary
are shorter than those initiated at overextended levels (corrected).
This
is because the Slope value reaches its maximum very quickly, hence
shorter cycles.
And
why now? Because the Secondary is not trending. Some
signal will work, others won't-- in much more of a random order
than signals generated when the Secondary is in a trend. That
percentage is about 80% according to a user who has reviewed all
of last year's signals. This is why there's the 'new and improved
model.'
Nonetheless,
since the up cycle on the Secondary ended on March 19th, our expectation
for the next cycle on the Secondary hasn't changed: down. Today's
action looks more like they ran the buy stops at 117.50 as the highs
were once again tested. Still trendless and until the divergence
is broken, the strategy hasn't changed. Market's give you
more chances to sell the highs than buy the lows.
Even
with the reversal in signal weight, it still closed only modestly
negative at -581. An hour of -1000 signal weight tomorrow
will turn the Primary back down.
Mar
25: 3:35
Signal
weight going negative, the Secondary has flipped back down....the
bull trap I mentioned this morning? Maybe so.
Mar
25: 2:30
Signal
weight has eroded to +639, the Change now negative at -11.
Mar
25: 1pm
Signal
weight holding very strongly positive, price making new highs
during the last bar. While not taking the signal on SPY, we
are trading X per comments on the Advanced page.
Mar
25: 11:50am What Would Break the Negative Divergence
Notice
today that the orange line on the Secondary really isn't expanding
up? Still showing negative divergence. So how would
it be broken? My sense is that the current up cycle on the
Primary will need to take the value of the Primary to +5000 or more
on strongly positive signal weight tomorrow and Monday. This
would expand the Slope value of the Secondary to over 100+ such
that it could maintain a positive slope during a down cycle on the
Primary.
As
always, signal weight, not price, is the key to whether a break
out above a range is sustainable. Otherwise, a bull trap would
be in the making. I said last week that tops want to suck
you in and leave you at the highs. This shouldn't prevent
you from trading--same as knowing that you could wreck your car
on the freeway doesn't prevent you from driving. Analysis
paralysis must be avoided.
Mar
25: 11:30am Enter Long Signal Confirmed
The
enter long signal has confirmed as signal weight expanded above
+1300.
Mar
25: 11am Slope Change Up Signal Confirmed, Early Enter Long
signal issued
The
slope change up has confirmed and since we didn't take the short
signal yesterday, no exit short is required. An Early Enter
Long signal has also issued and will confirm at 11:30 if signal
weight exceeds +1148. Under the new trading model, we shouldn't
be taking this signal as the Secondary is not yet trending.
Mar
25: 10:30 Early Slope Change Up Signal Issued
The
early slope change up, early exit short signal has issued that will
confirm at 11 am if signal weight exceeds +780, otherwise next bar. An early enter
long signal is still a few bars away. Signal weight has already
moderated somewhat from the strongly positive opening levels. We'll
need to see signal weight expand back up above +1300+- for this
cycle to gain some strength, otherwise we could simply hack around
again near the highs as we have been doing for the last several
days.
Mar
25: Opening Read
Signal
weight has opened very strongly positive at +1607, the Change +117
and TTXSlope=next bar at the current level of signal weight. It's
likely we'll see another long signal today. If today's move
represents a breakout above the January and March highs, then it
will need to be accompanied by very strongly positive signal weight
to break the negative divergence in the Secondary.
Mar
24: Closing Read
The
Secondary flipped back down at the close today and is still in a
transitioning mode. With the weak Change number, signal weight
will need to open strongly negative tomorrow to continue the current
down cycle on the Primary.
Mar
24: 2:45pm
Signal
weight -925, the Change low at -20. Not yet seeing any sell
indication on the Timing Accumulator and with the low Change we
don't have the ideal set of relationships.
Mar
24: 1:30 Enter Short Confirmed at 116.85
The
short has confirmed, the improved trading model will not take the
signal because the Secondary is <-75 and not yet trending.
Mar
24: 1:17pm Early Enter Short Signal Issued
An
early enter short signal has issued that will confirm at the end
of the current bar, or any other subsequent bar, if signal weight
exceeds -880 (which turns the Secondary down). The new and
improved trading model will not take this signal. The last
3 such signals that have been avoided have failed to achieve their
targets (the last one by only 4 cents). Given the negative
divergence on the Secondary, advanced users may want to take this
signal when and if it's supported by the SPY Timing Accumulator
and stronger negative signal weight.
Mar
24: 12pm Exit Long/Slope Change Down Signal Confirmed
The
slope change down has confirmed. Signal weight has moderated
again. The trading models continue neutral.
Mar
24: 11:30 Signal has not yet confirmed
Signal
weight declined to -1000 at the close of the previous bar, so the
signal did not confirm. However it will confirm at 12 if signal
weight remains greater than -40. SPY at the lows of the day.
Mar
24: 11:17 Early Exit Long/Early Slope Change Down signal
issued
The
slope change signal has issued as signal weight has declined to
-1120. The signal will confirm at 11:30 if signal weight remains
greater than -1120, otherwise it will confirm at 12pm.
Mar
24: 11am
Signal
weight has moderated to -704, the Change -48 and TTXSlope=next bar
or this bar if signal weight exceeds -1120.
Mar
24: 10am
Signal
weight holding -1150, the Change -87, TTXSlope=1.1 bars. Assuming
we get a slope change down signal today, the trading model will ignore
any enter short as well because the Secondary is not yet trending
(>+-75)
Today's
a good day to use your signal weight limits. I've got my upper
limit at -870 and the lower at -1400. You can build your own
wave file or use one of the ones I originally supplied. Any
wave file will work, just make sure it's in your Delineator program
directory and use the setup to code it in.
Mar
24: Opening Read
Signal
weight has opened strongly negative, the Secondary flipping back
down again. An early slope change down signal is expected
in 2 bars.
Mar
23: Closing Read
Signal
weight closed strongly positive at +1403, the Change +34. We're
back at the top from the 17th again. Signal weight will need
to expand again tomorrow or the Change will go negative and the
process of the next slope change will begin. The negative
divergence continues on the Secondary.
Mar
23: 3:20pm
Signal
weight has expanded to +1170, the change +28. We're testing
the highs from the 17th. The Primary is now very close to
zero again.
Mar
23: 12:45pm
Signal
weight still stuck in a narrow weak range. Pretty boring
here but given the fact that someone gave me a cold, I've got little
else to do.
Mar
23: 11:15
Signal
weight got up to +600+-, but then failed and has returned to weakly
negative numbers. The Secondary has flipped twice thus far
today and at this posting is now back down, the up cycle on the
Primary out of confirmation.
Mar
23: 10am
Signal
weight has been in a narrow range today, -200 to +450. The
Secondary has already turned back down once today. I continue
to stress that getting sucked back in at the top is the biggest
risk we face as the Secondary goes through its topping process.
Mar
23: Opening Read
Signal
weight has opened flat, the Change -21. Negative signal weight
of -120 turns the Secondary back down and will take the signal out
of confirmation.
Mar
22: Closing Read
Signal
weight ended with strongly positive signal weight at +943,
the Change +36. The short signal that was issued and ignored
on Friday failed. Today's signal we have also ignored per
previous postings today. Waiting for the Secondary to confirm
a new trend before taking a signal eliminates quite a few poor trades, as
it has already this year.
Signal
weight will need to open tomorrow strongly positive to keep the
Change strong, otherwise we could easily see another slope change
tomorrow.
Mar
22: 2:30pm Enter Long Confirmed, Ignore
The
enter long has confirmed but will be ignored per previous comments.
Mar
22: 2pm Slope Change UP Confirmed, Early Enter Long
Issued but will be ignored.
The
slope change up signal has confirmed, and an early enter long signal
has also been issued that will confirm if signal weight exceeds
+390 at 2:30pm. The long signal will be ignored because the
slope of the Secondary does not exceed +75.
Mar
22: 1:30
The
slope change up did not confirm. It will confirm at 2pm if
signal weight exceeds -280.
Mar
22: 1pm
Signal
weight now modestly positive. An early slope change up signal
is expected either this bar or next.
Update
1:05pm: The early slope change up signal has issued that will
confirm at 1:30 if signal weight exceeds +720. An early enter
long signal will be issued if the Slope reaches +75 on the Primary.
However, this signal will also be ignored by the model as
the Slope of the Secondary, while up, does not exceed +75.
Mar
22: 11:30
Signal
weight still weakly positive at +228, the Change +60 and TTXslope=3bars.
Price got to 116.48 before turning back down again. A
break of 116 again will turn signal weight strongly negative and
continue the current down cycle on the Primary.
Mar
22: 10:30am
Signal
weight has turned weakly positive at +88, the Change +72, TTXSlope=4.4
bars at the current level of signal weight. At +400, the Secondary
turns back up. If we get a slope change back up today, it
will be unlikely that the Secondary will reach +75 to trigger a
long signal. I expect a test of 116.60+- which was the break
down level and the level from two days ago.
Mar
22: 10:15am
The
opening gaps on SPY have been filled. With a positive Change
number, we can expect the lows of the morning to hold unless signal
weight again turns very strongly negative. The Primary is
obviously not overextended down at only -2333, so if we trade sideways
with only moderately negative signal weight, we can expect the Change
number to slowly approach zero again. If it reaches single
digits later in the day, we should expect Price to again resolve
back down in the direction of the Primary. Not much to do
here but watch and see how this cycle develops.
Mar
22: 10am
Signal
weight has moderated to -742, the Change +40 and TTXSlope=10 bars.
I had some difficulty with the server this morning. If
you're having a problem, close your program and switch to the .21
server from your server ip list in your Delineator directory
Mar
22: Opening Read
Signal
weight has opened very strongly negative at -1750, the Change -7.
The short signal that was issued on Friday at 116.06 was ignored
because the value of the Secondary was not greater than -75. No
new short signal is issued today because the value of the Second
is now greater than -75. That value must be at -75 or more
at the time of the signal for the new and improved trading model
to be triggered. (Oh, I do not know why the program sent
out an email this morning...there is NO new signal.)
Mar
19: Closing Read
Signal
weight remained very strongly negative all day. At the close,
the Change was already positive at +14. The Secondary also
changed slope down today. At -3.4, the Secondary can obviously
flip back up with only modestly positive signal weight, but it will
take many days of strongly positive signal weight to reinstate an
up cycle on the Secondary.
So
the next up cycle on the Primary will again be the key to the direction
of the Secondary for the balance of March and half of April. The
last down cycle on the Secondary took 4 slope changes on the Secondary
before the new down cycle took hold. At the least, that should
be our expectation here.
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