Closing Read Mar 12, 2010

Primary Trend=Up

Number of days=19

1st Target Level=113.13 (achieved Mar 5th)

2nd Target Level=115.08 (achieved Mar 10th)

PM Update Mar 12:  The Secondary lost 25 ticks to +146.

AM Update Mar 12:  The Secondary is up 2 ticks to +172 at the open.  To turn down, negative signal weight of -2620 is needed.  If signal weight closes negative today, there is definitely negative divergence suggesting that the current test of the January highs will fail.

PM Update Mar 11:  The Secondary lost only 16 ticks to +170 as signal weight reversed from strongly negative levels at the open.

AM Update Mar 11:  The Secondary is down 96 ticks to +90.  To turn down, negative signal weight of -2900 is needed.  There is a hint of negative divergence now.

PM Update Mar 9:  The Secondary lost 23 ticks to +176.  The Secondary cannot turn down tomorrow.

AM Update Mar 9:  The Secondary is losing 97 ticks to +103.  The Secondary cannot turn down without several days of strongly negative signal weight.

PM Update Mar 8:  The Secondary lost 18 ticks to +200.  It will take several days of strongly negative signal weight to turn the Secondary down.

AM Update Mar 8:  The Secondary is losing 11 ticks to +207.  To turn down, negative signal weight of -3250 is needed.

Mar 12:  Closing Read

No slope change today as signal weight never got positive enough to turn the Primary up.  Thus far, price has held the upper chevrons down and the value of the Primary has declined to just under 3000.  

Mar 12:  12:54

No big change from the prior posting.  Signal weight zero, Change +2.  The first tee beckons, have a nice weekend.

Mar 12:  11am

Signal weight -122 as price has filled the opening gap and is sitting at the levels of the series of chevrons down from the last two days.  The SPY Timing Accumulator went into a buy at the lows following the opening so I'm still expecting to see signal weight turn more strongly positive again.  But unless it goes back over +1000, a slope change up and an enter long will take many hours today as the Change value will remain only modestly strong.

Mar 12:  10am

Signal weight has reversed, now only +12, the Change +2 and any slope change up or enter long signal has been pushed out later in the day assuming signal weight returns to positive territory.

Mar 12:  Opening Read

Signal weight has opened moderately positive at +850, the Change +49 and TTXSlope=3.27 bars.  An enter long signal is several hours away at this level of signal weight.

Mar 11:  Closing Read

Signal weight could not stay negative for very long today, again influenced by the strength of the Secondary.  At 3pm, signal weight turned positive (see 1pm post), the Change started to build and price followed up closing at the highs for the day.  With the Primary now +4700, while not near zero, strongly positive signal weight will turn it up tomorrow within a few bars.

Mar 11:  3:15pm

Signal weight turned positive at 3:00 and now stands at +309, the Change +29.  Still a very narrow range day.

Mar 11:  1pm

Signal weight continues to hold weakly negative levels, SPY in a very narrow range.  We could see a bounce higher when the Change gets to zero now that it's in single digits.  A few more single chevrons up now showing, the SPY Timing Accumulator generally higher as well.

Mar 11:  11am

Signal weight has reversed, now sits at -170 from -1300 an hour ago; the Change -19.  There are a couple of double chevrons up at 114.  Just a waiting game now as the Primary is still rather high at +6900.  The trading model is obviously neutral.

Mar 11:  10am  Slope Change Down Signal confirmed

Signal weight has turned more strongly negative as the Primary has confirmed another slope change down.

Mar 11:  Opening Read   Early Slope Change Down Signal issued

Multiple slope changes on the Primary over the past day and again this morning.  Signal weight has opened -1125, the Change -97.  No short signal is possible today as the Secondary cannot turn down.

No March 10th updates

Mar 9:  Closing Read

Signal weight spent most of the day in positive territory after opening strongly negative.  It closed at +360, the Change -7.  So tomorrow, once again signal weight will be the key and its direction will determine whether the Primary turns back up or continues lower.  I will be away all day tomorrow from just after the open.  If we get a slope change up on strongly positive signal weight, I'd take the signal and trade X rather than SPY.

Mar 9:  2:00pm

Signal weight +840, the Change +14 and TTXSlope=5 bars.  We got somewhat of a move from the last posting but now the SPY Timing is showing sell pattern.  The big question many will ask is should I take a signal if the Primary turns back up from +7000.  The answer is yes if signal weight is supportive, and even a stronger yes if signal weight is +1500 at the time...but we'll cross that bridge when and if it happens.  I continue to hold all my core long positions as the Secondary is quite powerful.

Mar 9:  12:20

Signal weight expanding further.  SPY Timing Accumulator looking positive at this posting.

Mar 9:  11:50

Signal weight +362, the Change now +2 and only 88 bars to the next slope change at this level of signal weight!! (sounds of laughter) Not much range in SPY today.  We'd need to see signal weight expand to +1000+ to see a price expansion from the current level.  I'd sooner trade X than SPY.

Mar 9:  10:30am

Signal weight now +54, the Change -14, the Primary's now at +8821.  You can't fight the tape or the basic direction of signal weight, which is clearly more positive than negative.  But it's not very likely we'll get a slope change up today because the Slope value is -204 and we'd need to see signal weight expand to >+1500 for several hours before we'd get an early slope change up signal.  

10:40am:  But I wouldn't be too surprised to see price expand up if signal weight builds a bit more, the Change turns positive and the Timing Accumulator is in a buy indication.

Mar 9:  Opening Read

Signal weight has opened at -1050, the Change -81.  A downside price target for this cycle would be the gap at 112.83-113.08.  The Secondary cannot turn down today or tomorrow so no short signal can be issued.  SPY is very near to the previous high from January 14th.  The bullish scenario would call for a several day period of limited downside price action while the Primary moves lower toward zero.  As always, signal weight is key so stay focused on that rather than what price is doing.  If the range of signal weight stays below -1500, then the next up cycle on the Primary will take price above the old highs.

Mar 8:  Closing Read

Signal weight closed +455, the Change only -8.  We've seen many times during a strong up cycle on the Secondary (defined as it takes many days of negative weight to turn it lower) that we don't get much of a decline after a slope change down on the Primary until the next day.  So tomorrow, signal weight should become more negative--that should be our expectation.  However, the last two down cycles have been short so I wouldn't be too surprised to see a slope change back up if signal weight turns strongly positive tomorrow.  But with the Primary at +9300, any up cycle will be short.

Mar 8:  2:30pm

Signal weight holding modestly positive at +507, the Change -6.  It's not very likely we'll see a slope change up today even if signal weight goes over +1000. But with signal weight not going negative and the Change only -6, we could see signal weight turn more strongly positive during the next bar as we typically get a move when the Change reaches zero.

Mar 8:  12:30pm  Exit Long Confirmed at SPY 114.29

The exit long/slope change down signal has confirmed.  The trading model didn't achieve its target, but did make 43 cents.  I'm off to the gym, next update around 2:30pm.

Mar 8:  12pm  Early Exit Long / Early Slope Change Down signal issued

The signal is in and it will confirm at 12:30 if signal weight is less than +800.  No short signal can be issued as the Secondary is up (and cannot turn back down very easily).  I wouldn't expect much of a downside move today, but that gap from a day ago would be an obvious level for a retracement.  With the value of the Primary at +10,000, we should expect to see it decline to at least zero over this cycle.  However, due to the strength of the Secondary, we might see a repeat of the last cycle...we'll just wait and see how it develops.

Mar 8:  11:22am

Signal weight eroding.  We can expect an early slope change down/early exit long signal during the 11:30am bar.

Mar 8:  10:30am

Signal weight +536, the Change -47, TTXSlope=2.58 bars at this level of signal weight.  The Primary is now fully extended at +9998.  Any further rise from these levels during this cycle will be unsustainable.

Mar 8:  Opening Read

Signal weight has opened moderately positive at +788, the Change -54, TTXSlope=5 bars at this level of signal weight.  The trading model is still long at 113.86 with a gtc exit at 114.83.  The strength of the Secondary continues to express itself.

Mar 5:  Closing Read

Signal weight remained above +2000 for the last half of the day closing at +2053, the Change +12.  The trading model is long SPY at 113.86 with a gtc exit at 114.86.  The value of the Primary is now fully extended at +9475.

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